Copy trading
Copy-portfolio backtests, tracked results and live returns
A backtest reconstructs how rules might have behaved on historical inputs. Tracked portfolio statistics describe the published portfolio under its stated method. Live follower returns come from an individual account’s actual fills, costs and cash flows. These are separate evidence types and should be labeled separately.
Ask when the portfolio definition became real
A portfolio can be assembled today from leaders who performed well last month. Showing their earlier gains as if the portfolio existed then introduces selection bias. The publication boundary matters: newly chosen weights should not receive credit for returns earned before their effective published version.
A useful review identifies publication dates, version changes and whether each chart segment is reconstructed or tracked. Keep the two segments visually and analytically distinct. A long combined line can make a short actual record appear more established than it is.
Read the model’s assumptions
A reconstruction needs rules for weighting, cash handling, fees, funding, reinvestment and risk caps. It also needs sufficiently covered leader inputs. A missing leader observation can change the available result. Model returns are sensitive to the sampling interval and whether allocations rebalance or drift.
Hypothetical example: a fixed initial dollar allocation and a reinvested proportional allocation can diverge after gains because the second changes its future trade size. Neither model is automatically your actual account behaviour. Read which series you are viewing.
Execution cannot be assumed from a modeled target
A backtest can calculate a target allocation without experiencing the follower’s real order-book depth, latency, minimum sizes or skipped orders. A simulated cost allowance can improve realism but remains an assumption. Real fills need their own ledger and timestamps.
Leader performance also differs from portfolio performance. A portfolio result combines weights and rules; a follower adds personal settings and startup conditions. Keep leader closed-trade statistics from being presented as the copier’s trade statistics.
Use the record for specific questions
Backtests can help examine a rule’s behaviour and sensitivity. Tracked statistics can help assess the published strategy’s observed path. Actual follower results answer what happened in that account. None establishes future profitability. In WalletFollow, read basis labels, coverage explanations and version history before comparing two portfolios.
- Separate prepublication and tracked history.
- Document weighting and cash assumptions.
- Distinguish simulated costs from charged costs.
- Use actual fills for a follower-account reconciliation.